Estoril in Portugal is slightly to the South of Valencia, but on the opposite coast of the Iberian peninsula. You'd think that would give the Portuguese circuit the edge in the weather stakes, but while Valencia enjoys the sheltered waters of the Mediterranean and the balmy climate that comes hand in hand, Estoril is on the Atlantic coast, with nothing except a couple of thousand miles of open ocean between it and...well, more open ocean. And as a result, the circuit, though it's nicely laid out and has its fair share of interesting bits, can be a little difficult to get to grips with at times.

This weekend was a good example of that.

The first free practice session was topped by Hiroshi Aoyama. Yes, you read that correctly. Now while the extremely likeable young Japanese rider is very good, I suspect he'd be the first to admit that he's not that good. No, he hit the top because he was the only rider to get a vaguely decent lap in. Only Carlos Checa even attempted it, and his lap time was so far off the mark that it didn't actually count. Everyone else sat in their pit boxes and waited for the rain and wind to ease. They waited in vain, at least for that session.

The second free practice was still wet and miserable, though at least this time everyone was able to get out there and ride. Lorenzo headed the timesheets from Hayden and Rossi, with Stoner close behind. In fact, Stoner was the last rider to be within a second of the lead, Ben Spies proving his class by being the next fastest despite having never seen the place before. And because of the problems on Friday morning, an additional practice session was added on Saturday, just for luck. This was again topped by Lorenzo, with Rossi half a second behind, the only other rider within a second of the pace-setter. Dovizioso was third, with Stoner and colin Edwards in hot pursuit.

You know how I say that practice doesn't really matter, and that it's qualifying that counts? Well on this particular occasion that's not entirely true. Because the weather turned again, and qualifying was deemed too unsafe for the bikes or riders. Which meant that grid positions were decided on performance in free practice. Now if there were any justice, Hiroshi Aoyama would have ended up at the front on the basis that he was the only person with the guts to try in that first, washed out session. But no, only the second two sessions counted, which put Lorenzo, Hayden and Rossi on the front row, ahead of Stoner, Spies and Marco Melandri. Row three was headed by Dovizioso from Randy de Puniet and Colin Edwards while the fourth row saw Marco Simoncelli ahead of Espargaro and Dani pedrosa, the latter returning to action after his collarbone surgery and being understandably cautious.

Race day, and warmup was also wet. Rossi went quickest, from Stoner, Lorenzo and the remarkable Ben Spies. Everyone seemed to be getting themselves well and truly dialled in for what looked as though it would be the first properly wet race of the season. And then it stopped raining and the sun came out. Yes, just to show that the climate can have a laugh sometimes, the soaking wet track with its little rivers and lakes rapidly dried. Which meant that everyone was going to be racing with bikes set up essentially by the teams making educated guesses. Oh, and some riders, Spies in particular, would have even less experience of what was happening as he'd never turned a wheel here in the dry.

As it happened, that disadvantage was immaterial. The riders were given an extra sighting lap before lining up on the grid in an attempt to give them at least a sporting chance. But on the fourth corner, the first left hander, Spies made a rare mistake and highsided the Yamaha. The Texan dislocated his ankle, which made it impossible for him to race. It's doubly unfortunate after he'd stayed on the bike through all the appalling weather earlier in the weekend and managed to post respectable times, too. Which meant a hole on the grid as everyone lined up for the off.

Lights out and no messing around from Lorenzo as he took the holeshot, with Nicky Hayden, Rossi and Dovizioso all in the mix. Casey Stoner too made a valiant charge to be tussling near the front, though he lost out to Randy de puniet and found himself getting pushed back down the field. Rossi had a big moment early on, losing ground to Dovizioso and ending the first lap in fourth place. From first to fourth, though, was less than a second. Aleix Espargaro exited at some point during the lap as well, a victim of the treacherous conditions that left areas of the track slippery while apparently dry, while there were still damp patches elsewhere to catch the unwary.

The second lap saw Hayden barge past Lorenzo to take the lead while Rossi took a massive eight tenths of a second out of the gap to close right up in third. Casey Stoner was snapping at his heels as the leading group opened a gap over Dovizioso. And the third lap saw Lorenzo leading with Rossi second and Hayden third, a full second behind after a disastrous couple of corners and fighting off the attention of his team-mate. Up at the front, Lorenzo's lead was down to just over a tenth of a second while Hayden's advantage over Stoner was mere hundredths. Further back, Colin Edwards demonstrated that despite his having a new contract he was still up for a race, elbowing Marco Melandri out of the way in a very robust pass which took him to the front of the second real group in the race. Early days yet, though... lap five saw the unscheduled, and unforced, departure of Casey Stoner, the back of the Ducati stepping out and coming around before the Australian, or the electronics, could do anything to catch it. Happily uninjured, Stoner could only look in frustration as the Ducati broke too badly to continue.

It only took one more lap for Rossi to get to the front, passing Lorenzo beautifully cleanly through the tight, slow chicane section and immediately opening a lead. There was no doubt that the outgoing world champion was making a point, and for the next eight laps the gap steadily increased to over a second and a half, while behind them the gap back to third placed Hayden grew and grew until it was over ten seconds. As has so often been the case, the two Yamaha riders were in a league of their own. It seemed apparent that Rossi was determined to stop Lorenzo from getting three wins in a row here as the wily Italian put his head down and went for it. But the new world champion clearly had other ideas, and gradually the buffer that Rossi had put up was eroded until by lap sixteen it was barely thousandths. And then Lorenzo was past, again cleanly and safely. Though Rossi wasn't making it easy, there was clearly going to be no repeat of Japan or Motegi, and Lorenzo simply kept on pushing. Perhaps Rossi's setup wasn't as good as it might have been, but there was nothing that the Italian could do about it. Mind you, at this stage he was fourteen seconds ahead of the fight for third.

And what a fight that was. Marco Simoncelli had managed to get past Hayden and Dovizioso, and was now holding them off while Pedrosa stalked at the back of the group and Colin Edwards followed just behind. The tussle got tougher and tougher here, with Dovizioso ultimately taking the last podium step in a drag race to the line, Simoncelli's size and lack of full factory machinery working against him by just six hundredths of a second. Randy de Puniet, who had endured some spectacular wobbles and massively run wide on several corners, managed to regroup several times and just. push harder and harder to take an extremely well earned sixth, just behind Nicky Hayden, while Colin Edwards won out against Pedrosa. Carlos Checa, making a guest appearance from the SBK paddock on the second Pramac Ducati, retired early suffering from arm pump.

So what started off really interestingly became briefly thrilling before settling down into something rather less exciting. And then it got interesting again at the end. Estoril is often like that, though. As far as the championship is concerned, Rossi's second place here, coupled with Stoner's gravel surfing and Pedrosa's lack of fitness makes the second spot in the world championship a genuine possibility. Pretty good for someone who was off with a broken leg for a chunk of it. Stoner can now finish no higher than third and no lower than fifth. Ben Spies only needs a handful of points to become the best scoring rookie of all time, while Lorenzo only needs to hit the podium to take the highest ever points tally in a single season, that honour currently being held, of course, by one Dr V. Rossi.

Valencia is Pedrosa's home track. Lorenzo is a Spaniard as well. Which means there's a better than even chance of at least one of them imploding and doing something daft in front of the home crowd. It's a tight, technical circuit, and you can be reasonably sure of one thing. It won't be dull...

SB

Estoril MotoGP Results

1. Jorge Lorenzo (Yamaha)
2. Valentino Rossi (Yamaha)
3. Andrea Dovizioso(Honda)
4. Marco Simoncelli (Honda)
5. Nicky Hayden (Ducati)
6. Randy de Puniet (Honda)
7. Colin Edwards (Yamaha)
8. Dani Pedrosa (Honda)
9. Marco Melandri (Honda)
10. Hector Barbera (Ducati)

MotoGP standings (after seventeen rounds)

1. Jorge Lorenzo 358 (2010 MotoGP World Champion)
2. Dani Pedrosa 236
3. Valentino Rossi 217
4. Casey Stoner 205
5. Andrea Dovizioso 195
6. Ben Spies 163
7. Nicky Hayden 163
8. Marco Simoncelli 115
9. Randy de Puniet 110
10. Marco Melandri 100